| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.9% | 61% | -10.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 76.8% | 86% | -9.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 66.8% | 80% | -13.0% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.1% | 50% | +2.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 52.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 50.4% | 26.9% | 22.6% |
| xgboost | 38.3% | 35.3% | 26.4% |
| logistic | 47.0% | 28.2% | 24.8% |
| Oldham | Accrington | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1414 | 1367 |
| Surface Elo | 1414 | 1367 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 0.33 |
| Rest days | 13 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 26 Sep | H | Salford | 1 - 4 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Salford | 1 - 4 | L |
| 22 Sep | H | Fleetwood Town | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Rochdale | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Rochdale | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Salford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Cheltenham | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Cheltenham | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Swindon | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Swindon | 1 - 1 | D |
| 02 May 2026 | Oldham | 3 - 0 | Accrington |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Accrington | 1 - 0 | Oldham |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.90 | 20.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.65 | 60.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.76 | 56.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |