| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.5% | 58% | +5.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 67.8% | 32.2% |
| logistic | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| Lorenzo Giustino | Matthew William Donald | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1608 | 1515 |
| Surface Elo | 1608 | 1515 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | H | John Sperle | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Matthew William Donald | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | John Sperle | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Gerard Campana Lee | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | H | Ponce De Leon Gomila, M | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Olle Wallin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Dimitris Sakellaridis | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Martin Krumich | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Lorenzo Giustino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Lorenzo Giustino | 1 - 2 | Matthew William Donald |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.98 | 50.5% | 01 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.77 | 56.5% | 01 Oct 06:15 |