| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 66.1% | 74% | -7.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 39.3% | 60.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 22.0% | 78.0% |
| logistic | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| Jack Kennedy | Liam Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1594 | 1640 |
| Surface Elo | 1594 | 1640 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 23 | 36 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | H | Liam Draxl | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Lloyd Harris | 0 - 3 | L |
| 13 Jul | A | Anton Shepp | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Jun | H | Yosuke Watanuki | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Jun | H | Dinko Dinev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Maxim Zhukov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Jack Kennedy | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Aug | A | Andy Andrade | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Aug | A | Daniel Merida | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Jul | H | Toby Samuel | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Jack Kennedy | 0 - 2 | Liam Draxl |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.35 | 74.1% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.05 | 32.8% | 22 Sep 06:15 |