| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 76.5% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 29.3% | 70.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 18.9% | 81.0% |
| logistic | 15.2% | 84.8% |
| Matteo Berrettini | Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1886 | 2333 |
| Surface Elo | 1886 | 2333 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 2.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.10 | 1.83 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.10 | 0.33 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 04 Nov | H | Ugo Humbert | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Nov | H | Ugo Humbert | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Nov | A | Brandon Nakashima | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Nov | A | Brandon Nakashima | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Oct | H | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Nov | A | Alex Michelsen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Nov | A | Alex Michelsen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Nov | A | Alex De Minaur | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Nov | A | Alex De Minaur | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | A | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Jul 2023 | Carlos Alcaraz | 3 - 1 | Matteo Berrettini |
| 14 Feb 2022 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 1 | Matteo Berrettini |
| 17 Jan 2022 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 3 | Matteo Berrettini |
| 25 Oct 2021 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 1 | Matteo Berrettini |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No bookmaker lines stored. | |||||