| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.8% | 73% | -20.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 60.6% | 25.0% |
| xgboost | 43.6% | 54.7% |
| logistic | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Seattle Kraken | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1578 | 1461 |
| Surface Elo | 1578 | 1461 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.83 | 4.14 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.67 | 2.71 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | A | New York Rangers | 1 - 4 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | New York Islanders | 5 - 3 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Minnesota Wild | 3 - 2 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Philadelphia Flyers | 4 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Washington Capitals | 3 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Philadelphia Flyers | 3 - 2 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Washington Capitals | 5 - 3 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Detroit Red Wings | 6 - 3 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Vegas Golden Knights | 2 - 6 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Calgary Flames | 6 - 1 | W |
| 26 Mar 2026 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 3 - 4 | Seattle Kraken |
| 18 Mar 2026 | Seattle Kraken | 2 - 6 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 23 Feb 2025 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 4 - 1 | Seattle Kraken |
| 15 Dec 2024 | Seattle Kraken | 1 - 5 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 1.37 | 73.0% | 15 Oct 19:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 3.36 | 29.8% | 15 Oct 19:20 |