| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.6% | 58% | +2.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 32.1% | 67.9% |
| logistic | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| Igor Marcondes | Federico Agustin Gomez | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1535 | 1602 |
| Surface Elo | 1535 | 1602 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 23 Sep | A | Patrick Maloney | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Ozan Baris | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Nishesh Basavareddy | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Timo Legout | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Federico Agustin Gomez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Trevor Svajda | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Tyler Zink | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Igor Marcondes | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Trevor Svajda | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Tyler Zink | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Federico Agustin Gomez | 1 - 2 | Igor Marcondes |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.60 | 62.5% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 25 Sep 06:15 |