OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-10

🎾 tennis_atp_shanghai_masters · Saturday 10 October 2026, 07:20 UTC · scheduled

Arthur Fils 1.80 07:20 2.40 Pavel Kotov

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	78.1%	91%	-12.8%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	91.5%	8.5%
logistic	79.1%	20.9%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Arthur Fils	Pavel Kotov
Elo (pre-match)	2076	1755
Surface Elo	2076	1755
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.80	2.40
Form trend	0.30	-0.30
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	6	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	1 W	0 W · 0 D

Arthur Fils: last 5

10 Oct	H	Pavel Kotov	2 - 0	W
04 Oct	A	Valentin Vacherot	1 - 2	L
04 Oct	H	Valentin Vacherot	1 - 2	L
02 Oct	H	Frances Tiafoe	2 - 0	W
02 Oct	H	Frances Tiafoe	2 - 0	W

Pavel Kotov: last 5

10 Oct	A	Arthur Fils	0 - 2	L
08 Oct	H	Tallon Griekspoor	2 - 0	W
08 Oct	H	Tallon Griekspoor	2 - 0	W
06 Oct	H	Aleksandar Vukic	2 - 0	W
05 Oct	A	Damm Jr, Martin	2 - 1	W

Head to head

10 Oct 2026	Arthur Fils	2 - 0	Pavel Kotov
02 Oct 2023	Arthur Fils	2 - 0	Pavel Kotov

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.10	90.9%	10 Oct 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Pavel Kotov	7.75	12.9%	10 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.10	90.9%	10 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Pavel Kotov	7.00	14.3%	10 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.08	92.6%	10 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Pavel Kotov	7.45	13.4%	10 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.12	89.3%	10 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Pavel Kotov	8.60	11.6%	10 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Arthur Fils	1.13	88.5%	10 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Pavel Kotov	9.20	10.9%	10 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.09	91.7%	10 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Pavel Kotov	7.88	12.7%	10 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.10	90.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Pavel Kotov	7.20	13.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.10	90.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Pavel Kotov	7.10	14.1%	10 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.09	91.7%	10 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Pavel Kotov	7.19	13.9%	10 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.09	91.7%	10 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Pavel Kotov	7.50	13.3%	10 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.12	89.3%	10 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Pavel Kotov	8.60	11.6%	10 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Arthur Fils	1.14	87.7%	10 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Pavel Kotov	9.00	11.1%	10 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.10	90.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Pavel Kotov	7.20	13.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.10	90.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Pavel Kotov	7.79	12.8%	10 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.04	96.2%	10 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Pavel Kotov	6.75	14.8%	10 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	7.50	13.3%	10 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.10	90.9%	10 Oct 06:15
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.09	91.7%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Pavel Kotov	5.90	17.0%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.09	91.7%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Pavel Kotov	7.50	13.3%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.09	91.7%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Pavel Kotov	7.50	13.3%	10 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.10	90.9%	10 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Pavel Kotov	7.00	14.3%	10 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.10	90.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Pavel Kotov	7.75	12.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.09	91.7%	10 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Pavel Kotov	7.25	13.8%	10 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 15:54 UTC