| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 57.2% | 69% | -12.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 83.2% | 92% | -8.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 76.7% | 88% | -11.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.2% | 52% | +4.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 16.9% | 24.1% | 59.0% |
| xgboost | 20.7% | 20.8% | 58.5% |
| logistic | 14.3% | 23.7% | 61.9% |
| Gil Vicente | Porto | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1559 | 1880 |
| Surface Elo | 1559 | 1880 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.75 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 5 | 14 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 6 W · 2 D |
| 19 Oct | A | Sp Braga | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Moreirense | 1 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Moreirense | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Maritimo | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Maritimo | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Oct | H | PSV Eindhoven | 0 - 1 | L |
| 14 Oct | A | Betis | 2 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Maritimo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Maritimo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Leixoes SC | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Jan 2026 | Porto | 3 - 0 | Gil Vicente |
| 18 Aug 2025 | Gil Vicente | 0 - 2 | Porto |
| 19 Jan 2025 | Gil Vicente | 3 - 1 | Porto |
| 10 Aug 2024 | Porto | 3 - 0 | Gil Vicente |
| 25 Feb 2024 | Gil Vicente | 1 - 1 | Porto |
| 23 Sep 2023 | Porto | 2 - 1 | Gil Vicente |
| 26 Feb 2023 | Porto | 1 - 2 | Gil Vicente |
| 03 Sep 2022 | Gil Vicente | 0 - 2 | Porto |
| 27 Feb 2022 | Porto | 1 - 1 | Gil Vicente |
| 24 Sep 2021 | Gil Vicente | 1 - 2 | Porto |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 1.41 | 70.9% | 24 Oct 20:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.20 | 23.8% | 24 Oct 20:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 7.50 | 13.3% | 24 Oct 20:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.98 | 50.5% | 24 Oct 20:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.88 | 53.2% | 24 Oct 20:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.47 | 68.0% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.70 | 21.3% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 7.30 | 13.7% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.92 | 52.1% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.93 | 51.8% | 24 Oct 06:15 |