| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 64.5% | 74% | -9.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 62.9% | 37.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 74.8% | 25.2% |
| logistic | 61.1% | 38.9% |
| Jacob Fearnley | Damir Dzumhur | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1781 | 1669 |
| Surface Elo | 1781 | 1669 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 2.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 1.57 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.20 | 0.86 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | H | Luca Nardi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | H | Maxim Mrva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Jan Kumstat | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | George Loffhagen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Damir Dzumhur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Maks Kasnikowski | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Tom Gentzsch | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | Dimitar Kuzmanov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Aziz Dougaz | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Jacob Fearnley | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Damir Dzumhur | 2 - 0 | Jacob Fearnley |
| 05 Mar 2026 | Damir Dzumhur | 0 - 2 | Jacob Fearnley |
| 03 Nov 2025 | Damir Dzumhur | 2 - 0 | Jacob Fearnley |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.00 | 33.3% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.36 | 73.5% | 18 Oct 06:15 |