| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.8% | 69% | -13.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 82.7% | 88% | -5.6% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 75.5% | 85% | -9.4% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.3% | 65% | -9.8% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 60.0% | 20.6% | 19.4% |
| xgboost | 56.5% | 29.1% | 14.5% |
| logistic | 52.5% | 27.4% | 20.1% |
| Elversberg | Darmstadt | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1576 | 1410 |
| Surface Elo | 1576 | 1410 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 2 D |
| 24 Oct | A | RB Leipzig | 0 - 4 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | RB Leipzig | 0 - 4 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Augsburg | 4 - 3 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Augsburg | 4 - 3 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Union Berlin | 0 - 1 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | St Pauli | 0 - 0 | D |
| 23 Oct | H | St Pauli | 0 - 0 | D |
| 18 Oct | A | Karlsruhe | 0 - 4 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Karlsruher SC | 0 - 4 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Cottbus | 3 - 1 | W |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Darmstadt | 3 - 3 | Elversberg |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Elversberg | 0 - 0 | Darmstadt |
| 08 Feb 2025 | Darmstadt | 0 - 3 | Elversberg |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Elversberg | 4 - 0 | Darmstadt |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.78 | 14.8% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.17 | 19.3% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.45 | 69.0% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.52 | 65.8% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.60 | 38.5% | 27 Oct 06:15 |