| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 67.5% | 74% | -6.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 78.8% | 21.1% |
| logistic | 65.6% | 34.4% |
| Alexander Bublik | Fabian Marozsan | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1934 | 1766 |
| Surface Elo | 1934 | 1766 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 9 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | A | Alexander Zverev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Alexander Zverev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Brandon Nakashima | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Brandon Nakashima | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Tomas Machac | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Timofey Skatov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Timofey Skatov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Zachary Svajda | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Zachary Svajda | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Kyrian Jacquet | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.45 | 29.0% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.33 | 75.2% | 22 Oct 06:15 |