| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.5% | 44% | +4.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.4% | 79% | -2.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 62.6% | 59% | +3.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% | 66% | -7.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.5% | 25.2% | 31.3% |
| xgboost | 46.3% | 24.1% | 29.6% |
| logistic | 48.1% | 28.0% | 23.9% |
| Luton | Leicester | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1555 | 1498 |
| Surface Elo | 1555 | 1498 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Barnsley | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Barnsley | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Milton Keynes Dons | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Milton Keynes Dons | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Wycombe | 4 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Bromley | 4 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Bromley | 4 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Doncaster | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Doncaster | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Woking | 2 - 2 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.90 | 34.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.52 | 65.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.50 | 40.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |