| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.9% | 51% | +8.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 51.0% | 48.9% |
| logistic | 60.4% | 39.6% |
| Ilya Ivashka | Liam Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1684 | 1616 |
| Surface Elo | 1684 | 1616 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Liam Draxl | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Marat Sharipov | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Beibit Zhukayev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | A | Sharipov, Marat | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Marat Sharipov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Omar Jasika | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Martin Landaluce | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Tomas Machac | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Ilya Ivashka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | James Duckworth | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Ilya Ivashka | 1 - 2 | Liam Draxl |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.78 | 56.2% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.97 | 50.8% | 15 Oct 06:15 |