| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 64.5% | 78% | -13.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 80.5% | 19.4% |
| logistic | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| Gianluca Cadenasso | Filippo Moroni | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1559 | 1507 |
| Surface Elo | 1559 | 1507 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 6 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Massimo Giunta | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Filippo Moroni | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Vitaliy Sachko | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Lorenzo Angelini | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Benito Sanchez Martinez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Ignacio Parisca Romera | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Gianluca Cadenasso | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Alex Marti Pujolras | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Fabrizio Andaloro | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Gianmarco Ferrari | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Filippo Moroni | 1 - 2 | Gianluca Cadenasso |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.35 | 29.8% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.29 | 77.5% | 06 Oct 06:15 |