| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.3% | 33% | +15.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.3% | 78% | -2.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 62.5% | 46% | +16.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.1% | 59% | +10.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 65.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 36.0% | 29.9% | 34.0% |
| xgboost | 44.6% | 23.8% | 31.5% |
| logistic | 43.3% | 27.6% | 29.1% |
| Stevenage | Leicester | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1541 | 1487 |
| Surface Elo | 1541 | 1487 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 17 | 17 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Sep | A | Walsall | 6 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Leyton Orient | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Leyton Orient | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Sep | H | Luton | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Barnsley | 5 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Fulham | 6 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Barnsley | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Barnsley | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Stockport | 4 - 3 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Oxford | 0 - 4 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.20 | 45.5% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.10 | 32.3% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.60 | 62.5% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 06 Oct 06:15 |