| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 71.0% | 78% | -7.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 68.1% | 31.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 81.6% | 18.4% |
| logistic | 70.6% | 29.4% |
| Karolina Muchova | Liudmila Samsonova | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1906 | 1682 |
| Surface Elo | 1906 | 1682 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 02 Oct | H | Katie Boulter | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Nikola Bartunkova | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Naomi Osaka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Liudmila Samsonova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Katie Boulter | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Linda Fruhvirtova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Karolina Muchova | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Linda Fruhvirtova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Peyton Stearns | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Sep | A | Marta Kostyuk | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Karolina Muchova | 2 - 1 | Liudmila Samsonova |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.85 | 26.0% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.28 | 78.1% | 04 Oct 06:15 |