| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 50.3% | 62% | -12.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.3% | 83% | -7.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 64.3% | 78% | -13.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 74% | -20.8% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 27.6% | 27.7% | 44.7% |
| xgboost | 30.4% | 25.5% | 44.2% |
| logistic | 29.4% | 28.3% | 42.3% |
| Paderborn | Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1553 | 1690 |
| Surface Elo | 1553 | 1690 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 2.25 |
| Rest days | 19 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | A | DC United | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Hoffenheim | 3 - 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Borussia Dortmund | 0 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Freiburg | 0 - 1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Mainz | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | SV Meppen 1912 | 1 - 1 | D |
| 01 Oct | H | Greuther Furth | 5 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Heidenheim | 3 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Borussia Dortmund | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Regensburg | 3 - 3 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 1.60 | 62.5% | 10 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.50 | 22.2% | 10 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 4.75 | 21.1% | 10 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.36 | 73.5% | 10 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.20 | 31.2% | 10 Oct 14:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.61 | 62.1% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.93 | 20.3% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 5.11 | 19.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.35 | 74.1% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.33 | 30.0% | 10 Oct 06:15 |