| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.9% | 54% | -3.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 77.4% | 81% | -3.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 68.4% | 73% | -4.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 48.7% | 51% | -2.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.3% | 27.8% | 28.9% |
| xgboost | 53.9% | 25.4% | 20.8% |
| logistic | 53.5% | 26.3% | 20.2% |
| Birmingham | Swansea | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1635 | 1610 |
| Surface Elo | 1635 | 1610 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.86 | 1.86 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.86 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.93 | 1.14 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 0 W · 6 D |
| 03 Nov | H | Millwall | 3 - 0 | W |
| 03 Nov | H | Millwall | 3 - 0 | W |
| 03 Nov | A | Woking | 1 - 3 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Lincoln | 3 - 1 | W |
| 31 Oct | A | Lincoln | 3 - 1 | W |
| 03 Nov | A | Portsmouth | 1 - 3 | L |
| 03 Nov | A | Portsmouth | 1 - 3 | L |
| 31 Oct | H | Blackburn | 4 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Blackburn | 4 - 0 | W |
| 30 Oct | A | Birmingham | 3 - 0 | W |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Birmingham | 0 - 3 | Swansea |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Swansea | 1 - 1 | Birmingham |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Birmingham | 1 - 0 | Swansea |
| 13 Jan 2024 | Birmingham | 2 - 2 | Swansea |
| 05 Aug 2023 | Swansea | 1 - 1 | Birmingham |
| 04 Feb 2023 | Swansea | 3 - 4 | Birmingham |
| 08 Nov 2022 | Birmingham | 2 - 2 | Swansea |
| 19 Mar 2022 | Swansea | 0 - 0 | Birmingham |
| 23 Oct 2021 | Birmingham | 2 - 1 | Swansea |
| 02 Apr 2021 | Birmingham | 1 - 0 | Swansea |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.90 | 25.6% | 07 Nov 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 07 Nov 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.86 | 53.8% | 07 Nov 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.83 | 54.6% | 07 Nov 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.03 | 49.3% | 07 Nov 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.18 | 23.9% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.71 | 27.0% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.92 | 52.1% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.87 | 53.5% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.98 | 50.5% | 07 Nov 06:15 |