| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.2% | 67% | -8.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 66.1% | 33.9% |
| logistic | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| Murphy Cassone | Daniel Masur | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1631 | 1604 |
| Surface Elo | 1631 | 1604 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Sep | A | Billy Harris | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Clement Tabur | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Patrick Zahraj | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Harold Mayot | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Daniel Masur | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Matteo Martineau | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Moez Echargui | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Maxime Janvier | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Murphy Cassone | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Matteo Martineau | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Daniel Masur | 1 - 2 | Murphy Cassone |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.50 | 66.7% | 25 Sep 06:15 |