OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-24
🇩🇪 Bundesliga · Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC · finished
Mainz 1.80 2 - 3 1.80 Werder Bremen
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 53.4%57%-3.4%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 79.1%81%-1.9%✗ miss
DNBHome (DNB) 70.4%74%-3.8%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 67.0%66%+1.4%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 65.3%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson51.6%24.9%23.5%
xgboost51.6%22.6%25.8%
logistic58.1%24.3%17.6%
Inputs the models saw
MainzWerder Bremen
Elo (pre-match)16351568
Surface Elo16351568
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.801.80
Form trend0.000.40
Season points per game1.671.50
Season goals for / game2.332.00
Season goals against / game1.672.00
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W5 W · 2 D
Mainz: last 5
17 OctASchalke 041 - 0W
17 OctASchalke 041 - 0W
10 OctHBayer Leverkusen3 - 4L
10 OctHBayer Leverkusen3 - 4L
19 SepABorussia M´gladbach4 - 3W
Werder Bremen: last 5
17 OctHPaderborn2 - 2D
17 OctHPaderborn2 - 2D
09 OctABorussia Dortmund2 - 2D
09 OctABorussia Dortmund2 - 2D
19 SepHAugsburg3 - 2W
Head to head
15 Mar 2026Werder Bremen0 - 2Mainz
01 Nov 2025Mainz1 - 1Werder Bremen
31 Jan 2025Werder Bremen1 - 0Mainz
15 Sep 2024Mainz1 - 2Werder Bremen
03 Feb 2024Mainz0 - 1Werder Bremen
02 Sep 2023Werder Bremen4 - 0Mainz
08 Apr 2023Mainz2 - 2Werder Bremen
15 Oct 2022Werder Bremen0 - 2Mainz
21 Apr 2021Werder Bremen0 - 1Mainz
19 Dec 2020Mainz0 - 1Werder Bremen
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away4.0025.0%24 Oct 14:30
Bet3651X2draw4.0025.0%24 Oct 14:30
Bet3651X2home1.8055.6%24 Oct 14:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.5066.7%24 Oct 14:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.6338.0%24 Oct 14:30
SportyBet1X2away4.4022.7%24 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.2823.4%24 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.7955.9%24 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.4867.6%24 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.7536.4%24 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:54 UTC