| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.6% | 71% | -8.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 59.6% | 40.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 72.3% | 27.7% |
| logistic | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| Daniel Elahi Galan | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1549 | 1434 |
| Surface Elo | 1549 | 1434 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.80 | 1.13 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 25 Oct | H | Boris Arias | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Juan Pablo Varillas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Juan Pablo Varillas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Calvin Hemery | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Calvin Hemery | 1 - 2 | L |
| 25 Oct | A | Castro, Sergio | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Thiago Cigarran | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Franco Ribero | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Barrios Vera, Marcelo Tomas | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.80 | 35.7% | 26 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.41 | 70.9% | 26 Oct 06:15 |