| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 43.0% | 38% | +5.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 74.9% | 75% | -0.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 53.5% | 52% | +1.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.2% | 53% | +5.6% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 53.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 38.4% | 28.7% | 32.9% |
| xgboost | 41.0% | 25.0% | 34.1% |
| logistic | 32.9% | 29.3% | 37.8% |
| Stevenage | Plymouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1537 | 1575 |
| Surface Elo | 1537 | 1575 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.33 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 3 W · 1 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Bradford | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Bradford | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Wigan | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Wigan | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Leicester | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Huddersfield | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Huddersfield | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Bournemouth | 1 - 6 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | AFC Wimbledon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | AFC Wimbledon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Mar 2026 | Plymouth | 1 - 0 | Stevenage |
| 01 Jan 2026 | Stevenage | 1 - 1 | Plymouth |
| 25 Jan 2020 | Stevenage | 1 - 2 | Plymouth |
| 29 Dec 2019 | Plymouth | 2 - 1 | Stevenage |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.65 | 37.7% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.65 | 37.7% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.87 | 53.5% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.90 | 52.6% | 20 Oct 06:15 |