OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-11-08
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League · Sunday 08 November 2026, 16:30 UTC · finished
Manchester United 0.60 4 - 4 2.20 Aston Villa
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 50.6%48%+3.0%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 76.0%75%+0.6%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 66.8%65%+2.2%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 52.1%64%-11.6%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 54.6%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson42.1%25.9%32.0%
xgboost48.1%28.6%23.4%
logistic58.6%23.5%17.8%
Inputs the models saw
Manchester UnitedAston Villa
Elo (pre-match)17501770
Surface Elo17501770
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.602.20
Form trend0.300.20
Season points per game0.781.33
Season goals for / game1.111.11
Season goals against / game1.671.44
Rest days87
Head-to-head (last 10)5 W3 W · 2 D
Manchester United: last 5
03 NovACurzon Ashton FC0 - 1L
31 OctAChelsea0 - 2L
25 OctHBournemouth0 - 3L
20 OctHAltrincham2 - 6L
18 OctALeeds1 - 1D
Aston Villa: last 5
03 NovABarcelona0 - 3L
31 OctHFulham1 - 1D
31 OctHFulham1 - 1D
28 OctABournemouth0 - 3L
27 OctABlackpool2 - 3L
Head to head
15 Mar 2026Manchester United3 - 1Aston Villa
21 Dec 2025Aston Villa2 - 1Manchester United
25 May 2025Manchester United2 - 0Aston Villa
06 Oct 2024Aston Villa0 - 0Manchester United
11 Feb 2024Aston Villa1 - 2Manchester United
26 Dec 2023Manchester United3 - 2Aston Villa
30 Apr 2023Manchester United1 - 0Aston Villa
06 Nov 2022Aston Villa3 - 1Manchester United
15 Jan 2022Aston Villa2 - 2Manchester United
25 Sep 2021Manchester United0 - 1Aston Villa
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away3.3030.3%08 Nov 16:30
Bet3651X2draw4.1024.4%08 Nov 16:30
Bet3651X2home1.9551.3%08 Nov 16:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.4469.4%08 Nov 16:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.7536.4%08 Nov 16:30
Generated 2026-11-12 22:01 UTC