| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 60.5% | 54% | +6.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 83.8% | 81% | +2.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 78.9% | 73% | +5.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.3% | 53% | +0.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.8% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 63.1% | 22.1% | 14.8% |
| xgboost | 57.7% | 22.8% | 19.5% |
| logistic | 62.8% | 23.9% | 13.2% |
| York | Northampton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1603 | 1311 |
| Surface Elo | 1603 | 1311 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 31 Oct | A | Grimsby | 2 - 5 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Grimsby | 2 - 5 | L |
| 27 Oct | A | Barnet | 1 - 3 | L |
| 27 Oct | A | Barnet | 1 - 3 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Port Vale | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Nov | H | Oldham | 0 - 1 | L |
| 03 Nov | H | Oldham | 0 - 1 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Accrington | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Oct | A | Accrington | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Colchester | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | York | 1 - 1 | Northampton |
| 10 Oct 2026 | York | 1 - 1 | Northampton |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.30 | 23.3% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.84 | 54.4% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.89 | 52.9% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.88 | 53.2% | 07 Nov 06:15 |