| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 44.9% | 38% | +6.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 77.8% | 78% | -0.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 54.8% | 52% | +3.2% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.8% | 65% | -4.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.8% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 41.0% | 23.4% | 35.5% |
| xgboost | 33.6% | 19.8% | 46.6% |
| logistic | 32.3% | 28.6% | 39.1% |
| Dresden | Magdeburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1394 | 1463 |
| Surface Elo | 1394 | 1463 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 8 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 2 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Osnabruck | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Osnabruck | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Hertha Berlin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Hertha Berlin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Braunschweig | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Hannover | 3 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Hannover | 3 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | A | Greuther Furth | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Kaiserslautern | 3 - 0 | W |
| 06 Sep | A | Hertha Berlin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Magdeburg | 1 - 2 | Dresden |
| 09 Aug 2025 | Dresden | 1 - 2 | Magdeburg |
| 16 Mar 2019 | Dresden | 1 - 1 | Magdeburg |
| 06 Oct 2018 | Magdeburg | 2 - 2 | Dresden |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.60 | 38.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.75 | 26.7% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.50 | 40.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.54 | 64.9% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.45 | 40.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |