OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-11

🎾 ATP Shanghai, China Men Singles · Sunday 11 October 2026, 04:00 UTC · finished

Karen Khachanov 1.80 2 - 0 1.80 Adrian Mannarino

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	67.8%	76%	-8.0%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
markov	70.3%	29.7%
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	70.2%	29.7%
logistic	67.9%	32.1%

Inputs the models saw

	Karen Khachanov	Adrian Mannarino
Elo (pre-match)	1898	1747
Surface Elo	1898	1747
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.80	1.80
Form trend	0.00	-0.30
Season points per game	2.00	2.40
Season goals for / game	1.33	1.80
Season goals against / game	1.00	0.80
Rest days	1	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	4 W	0 W · 0 D

Karen Khachanov: last 5

11 Oct	A	Adrian Mannarino	2 - 0	W
09 Oct	H	Arthur Fery	2 - 1	W
09 Oct	A	Dillon Beckles	2 - 1	W
04 Oct	A	Hubert Hurkacz	0 - 2	L
04 Oct	A	Hubert Hurkacz	0 - 2	L

Adrian Mannarino: last 5

11 Oct	H	Karen Khachanov	0 - 2	L
09 Oct	H	Flavio Cobolli	2 - 1	W
09 Oct	H	Flavio Cobolli	2 - 1	W
07 Oct	H	Nikoloz Basilashvili	1 - 0	W
28 Sep	A	Miomir Kecmanovic	2 - 1	W

Head to head

11 Oct 2026	Adrian Mannarino	0 - 2	Karen Khachanov
13 Jan 2025	Adrian Mannarino	0 - 3	Karen Khachanov
25 Oct 2021	Adrian Mannarino	0 - 2	Karen Khachanov
15 Oct 2018	Adrian Mannarino	0 - 2	Karen Khachanov
16 Jan 2017	Adrian Mannarino	1 - 3	Karen Khachanov

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
SportyBet	1X2	away	3.55	28.2%	10 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.32	75.8%	10 Oct 06:15

Generated 2026-10-30 15:55 UTC