| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 43.4% | 41% | +2.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.1% | 77% | -1.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 54.1% | 57% | -2.8% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.5% | 50% | +3.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 49.8% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 40.6% | 27.9% | 31.5% |
| xgboost | 36.4% | 25.5% | 38.1% |
| logistic | 37.2% | 28.5% | 34.3% |
| Catanzaro | Ascoli | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1429 | 1456 |
| Surface Elo | 1429 | 1456 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.33 | 1.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.33 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 16 Oct | A | Verona | 2 - 2 | D |
| 16 Oct | A | Verona | 2 - 2 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | Mantova | 1 - 3 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Mantova | 1 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Cosenza | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | SS Monopoli | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | Lanciano FC | 5 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Empoli | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Empoli | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Pisa | 1 - 4 | L |
| 10 Feb 2024 | Catanzaro | 3 - 2 | Ascoli |
| 16 Dec 2023 | Ascoli | 1 - 0 | Catanzaro |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.80 | 35.7% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.33 | 30.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.45 | 40.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.76 | 56.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |