| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 68.9% | 71% | -2.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 33.1% | 66.8% |
| logistic | 31.3% | 68.7% |
| Juan Bautista Torres | Alex Barrena | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1494 | 1682 |
| Surface Elo | 1494 | 1682 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 0.75 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Alex Barrena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Barrios Vera, Marcelo Tomas | 0 - 1 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Miguel Tobon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Juan Bautista Torres | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Facundo Mena | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Alex Barrena | 2 - 0 | Juan Bautista Torres |
| 02 Feb 2026 | Alex Barrena | 0 - 2 | Juan Bautista Torres |
| 22 Sep 2025 | Alex Barrena | 2 - 1 | Juan Bautista Torres |
| 23 Jun 2025 | Alex Barrena | 2 - 1 | Juan Bautista Torres |
| 16 Jun 2025 | Alex Barrena | 2 - 0 | Juan Bautista Torres |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.40 | 71.4% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.80 | 35.7% | 12 Oct 06:15 |