| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 60.8% | 60% | +1.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 71.6% | 28.3% |
| logistic | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| Qinwen Zheng | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1833 | 1767 |
| Surface Elo | 1833 | 1767 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 09 Oct | H | Elina Svitolina | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Alina Charaeva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Marie Bouzkova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Anna Kalinskaya | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Han Shi | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Iga Swiatek | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Coco Gauff | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Jelena Ostapenko | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Katie Volynets | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Qinwen Zheng | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Elise Mertens | 0 - 2 | Qinwen Zheng |
| 31 Mar 2025 | Elise Mertens | 1 - 2 | Qinwen Zheng |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.68 | 59.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |