| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.6% | 41% | +13.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 48.2% | 51.7% |
| logistic | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| Ivan Marrero Curbelo | Niels Visker | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1508 | 1504 |
| Surface Elo | 1508 | 1504 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 0.80 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 11 Oct | H | Andrea Colombo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Philip Henning | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Joshua Sheehy | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Luca Potenza | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Maks Kasnikowski | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Tom Gentzsch | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Vargiu, Davide | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Marko Topo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Harold Mayot | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Niels McDonald | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.51 | 66.2% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.45 | 40.8% | 12 Oct 06:15 |