| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 82.2% | 83% | -0.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 80.2% | 19.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 80.0% | 19.9% |
| logistic | 79.8% | 20.2% |
| Otto Virtanen | Tiago Pereira | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1735 | 1359 |
| Surface Elo | 1735 | 1359 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 29 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | H | Tiago Pereira | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 3 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | Moez Echargui | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Jul | H | Timofey Skatov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Jul | A | Filippo Romano | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Hugo Grenier | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Otto Virtanen | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Pavlos Tsitsipas | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Sep | H | Pieczonka, Filip | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Filip Pieczonka | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Otto Virtanen | 1 - 2 | Tiago Pereira |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.90 | 25.6% | 28 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.23 | 81.3% | 28 Sep 06:15 |