| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.3% | 43% | +8.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 75.8% | 70% | +5.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 66.2% | 58% | +7.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.0% | 61% | -6.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 49.1% | 25.3% | 25.6% |
| xgboost | 39.5% | 31.9% | 28.6% |
| logistic | 49.6% | 25.7% | 24.7% |
| Middlesbrough | Wolverhampton Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1625 | 1598 |
| Surface Elo | 1625 | 1598 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 21 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Birmingham | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Birmingham | 2 - 2 | D |
| 15 Sep | H | Millwall | 2 - 2 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Norwich | 4 - 3 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | QPR | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | West Brom | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | West Brom | 1 - 0 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Sheffield Utd | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Sep | A | Birmingham | 2 - 2 | D |
| 01 Sep | A | West Ham | 2 - 4 | L |
| 30 Mar 2018 | Middlesbrough | 1 - 2 | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
| 05 Aug 2017 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 - 0 | Middlesbrough |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.01 | 33.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.30 | 43.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.64 | 61.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |