| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.1% | 48% | +5.5% |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 51.1% | 48.8% |
| logistic | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| markov | abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0) | |
| Luciano Darderi | Matteo Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1819 | 1786 |
| Surface Elo | 1819 | 1786 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 5 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W 路 0 D |
| 21 Oct | A | James Duckworth | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | A | James Duckworth | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Kyrian Jacquet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Lorenzo Musetti | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Lorenzo Musetti | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Taylor Fritz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Taylor Fritz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Bernard Tomic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 May 2024 | Luciano Darderi | 2 - 1 | Matteo Arnaldi |
| 21 Mar 2022 | Luciano Darderi | 1 - 2 | Matteo Arnaldi |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | h2h | Luciano Darderi | 2.10 | 47.6% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| 888sport | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 1.73 | 57.8% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| BetAnything | h2h | Luciano Darderi | 2.00 | 50.0% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| BetAnything | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 1.77 | 56.5% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h | Luciano Darderi | 2.16 | 46.3% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 1.83 | 54.6% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h_lay | Luciano Darderi | 2.20 | 45.5% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h_lay | Matteo Arnaldi | 1.86 | 53.8% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| BetOnline.ag | h2h | Luciano Darderi | 2.13 | 46.9% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| BetOnline.ag | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 1.75 | 57.1% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | h2h | Luciano Darderi | 2.04 | 49.0% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 1.78 | 56.2% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Matchbook | h2h | Luciano Darderi | 2.14 | 46.7% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Matchbook | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 1.81 | 55.2% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Matchbook | h2h_lay | Luciano Darderi | 2.24 | 44.6% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Matchbook | h2h_lay | Matteo Arnaldi | 1.88 | 53.2% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Pinnacle sharp | h2h | Luciano Darderi | 2.12 | 47.2% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Pinnacle sharp | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 1.79 | 55.9% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| PMU (FR) | h2h | Luciano Darderi | 1.94 | 51.5% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| PMU (FR) | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 1.70 | 58.8% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.79 | 55.9% | 26 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 26 Oct 06:15 |
| Unibet (FR) | h2h | Luciano Darderi | 1.94 | 51.5% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Unibet (FR) | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 1.68 | 59.5% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Unibet (NL) | h2h | Luciano Darderi | 2.04 | 49.0% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Unibet (NL) | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 1.78 | 56.2% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | h2h | Luciano Darderi | 2.04 | 49.0% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 1.78 | 56.2% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| William Hill | h2h | Luciano Darderi | 2.10 | 47.6% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| William Hill | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 1.73 | 57.8% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Winamax (DE) | h2h | Luciano Darderi | 2.10 | 47.6% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Winamax (DE) | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 1.80 | 55.6% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Winamax (FR) | h2h | Luciano Darderi | 2.00 | 50.0% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Winamax (FR) | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 1.74 | 57.5% | 26 Oct 06:00 |