| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.4% | 54% | -5.8% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.9% | 81% | -3.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 62.3% | 73% | -10.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.6% | 58% | -4.9% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.9% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 41.8% | 24.2% | 34.0% |
| xgboost | 49.0% | 23.9% | 27.1% |
| logistic | 47.4% | 26.5% | 26.1% |
| Sutton | Aldershot | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1381 | 1353 |
| Surface Elo | 1381 | 1353 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.07 | 1.29 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.21 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 1 W · 5 D |
| 24 Oct | A | Harrogate | 1 - 3 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Harrogate | 1 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Truro | 1 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | West Brom | 3 - 2 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Boreham Wood | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Wealdstone | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Wealdstone | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Altrincham | 1 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Altrincham | 1 - 3 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Carlisle | 1 - 3 | L |
| 03 Apr 2026 | Aldershot | 2 - 2 | Sutton |
| 26 Dec 2025 | Sutton | 0 - 0 | Aldershot |
| 18 Apr 2025 | Aldershot | 1 - 1 | Sutton |
| 01 Jan 2025 | Sutton | 1 - 1 | Aldershot |
| 01 May 2021 | Sutton | 3 - 1 | Aldershot |
| 06 Oct 2020 | Aldershot | 1 - 2 | Sutton |
| 26 Aug 2019 | Aldershot | 1 - 1 | Sutton |
| 29 Dec 2018 | Sutton | 2 - 1 | Aldershot |
| 27 Aug 2018 | Aldershot | 2 - 1 | Sutton |
| 28 Apr 2018 | Sutton | 2 - 1 | Aldershot |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.70 | 27.0% | 28 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 28 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.85 | 54.0% | 28 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 28 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.08 | 48.1% | 28 Oct 19:45 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.80 | 26.3% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.86 | 53.8% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.72 | 58.1% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 28 Oct 06:15 |