| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 38.9% | 61% | -21.8% | |
| DC | Home or away | 73.9% | 77% | -3.5% | |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 52.6% | 74% | -21.7% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 selected | 62.5% | 60% | +2.6% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 63.5% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.4% | 25.0% | 30.9% |
| xgboost | 29.5% | 26.6% | 43.9% |
| logistic | 32.3% | 25.9% | 41.8% |
| Le Mans | Lens | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1493 | 1646 |
| Surface Elo | 1493 | 1646 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.67 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Sep | A | Nice | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | Rennes | 2 - 3 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | Brest | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Lorient | 0 - 1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Strasbourg | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | Auxerre | 5 - 2 | W |
| 17 May | A | Lyon | 4 - 0 | W |
| 13 May | H | Paris Saint Germain | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 1.65 | 60.6% | 13 Sep 19:39 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.20 | 23.8% | 13 Sep 19:39 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 4.75 | 21.1% | 13 Sep 19:39 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 13 Sep 19:39 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 13 Sep 19:39 |