| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 49.5% | 43% | +6.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 74.7% | 75% | -0.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 63.3% | 59% | +4.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% | 56% | +5.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 31.0% | 28.0% | 41.0% |
| xgboost | 28.7% | 30.1% | 41.2% |
| logistic | 30.2% | 26.6% | 43.2% |
| Sunderland | Brighton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1684 | 1763 |
| Surface Elo | 1684 | 1763 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 20 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 06 Oct | A | Sheffield Weds | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Accrington | 3 - 3 | D |
| 20 Sep | A | Manchester City | 3 - 5 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Arsenal | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Brentford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Arsenal | 3 - 0 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Coventry | 5 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Leeds | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | Chelsea | 3 - 4 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | Aston Villa | 4 - 0 | W |
| 14 Mar 2026 | Sunderland | 0 - 1 | Brighton |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Brighton | 0 - 0 | Sunderland |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.38 | 42.0% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.00 | 33.3% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.03 | 49.3% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.83 | 54.6% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.42 | 41.3% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.57 | 28.0% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.06 | 32.7% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.80 | 55.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |