| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.1% | 67% | -4.5% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 87.8% | 87% | +0.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 83.5% | 84% | -0.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.9% | 59% | -3.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.7% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 65.6% | 21.9% | 12.6% |
| xgboost | 63.6% | 21.2% | 15.2% |
| logistic | 78.6% | 15.3% | 6.1% |
| Roma | Genoa | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1839 | 1582 |
| Surface Elo | 1839 | 1582 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 6 W | 2 W · 2 D |
| 14 Oct | H | Real Madrid | 3 - 4 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Como | 0 - 0 | D |
| 11 Oct | A | Como | 0 - 0 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Inter | 2 - 2 | D |
| 14 Sep | A | Torino | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Fiorentina | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Fiorentina | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Rapid Bucuresti 1923 | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Parma | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Frosinone | 1 - 1 | D |
| 08 Mar 2026 | Genoa | 2 - 1 | Roma |
| 29 Dec 2025 | Roma | 3 - 1 | Genoa |
| 17 Jan 2025 | Roma | 3 - 1 | Genoa |
| 15 Sep 2024 | Genoa | 1 - 1 | Roma |
| 19 May 2024 | Roma | 1 - 0 | Genoa |
| 28 Sep 2023 | Genoa | 4 - 1 | Roma |
| 05 Feb 2022 | Roma | 0 - 0 | Genoa |
| 21 Nov 2021 | Genoa | 0 - 2 | Roma |
| 07 Mar 2021 | Roma | 1 - 0 | Genoa |
| 08 Nov 2020 | Genoa | 1 - 3 | Roma |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.82 | 14.7% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.87 | 20.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.50 | 66.7% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.70 | 58.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |