| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.1% | 79% | -18.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 78.6% | 21.4% |
| logistic | 51.8% | 48.2% |
| Diego Dedura | Valerio Aboian | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1636 | 1654 |
| Surface Elo | 1636 | 1654 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.10 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 1.10 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 27 Oct | H | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Nicolas Kicker | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Frazier Rengifo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Oct | A | Franco Roncadelli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Miguel Tobon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Matias Soto | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.60 | 27.8% | 29 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.26 | 79.4% | 29 Oct 06:15 |