| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 63.8% | 60% | +3.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 35.6% | 64.4% |
| logistic | 38.8% | 61.2% |
| Gianluca Cadenasso | Vitaliy Sachko | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1544 | 1663 |
| Surface Elo | 1544 | 1663 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | H | Lorenzo Angelini | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Benito Sanchez Martinez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Vitaliy Sachko | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Lorenzo Angelini | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Benito Sanchez Martinez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Dimitar Kuzmanov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Mika Petkovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Samuele Pieri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Gianluca Cadenasso | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Dimitar Kuzmanov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Gianluca Cadenasso | 1 - 2 | Vitaliy Sachko |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.61 | 62.1% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 02 Oct 06:15 |