| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 75.1% | 84% | -8.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 14.8% | 85.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 28.7% | 71.3% |
| logistic | 18.9% | 81.1% |
| Yi Zhou | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1554 | 1962 |
| Surface Elo | 1554 | 1962 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 36 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 09 Oct | A | Lorenzo Musetti | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Mattia Bellucci | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Mattia Bellucci | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Pablo Carreno Busta | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | A | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Yi Zhou | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Sep | A | Dane Sweeny | 1 - 3 | L |
| 01 Sep | A | Dillon Beckles | 3 - 0 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | Frances Tiafoe | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Aug | A | Jaime Faria | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct 2026 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1 - 2 | Yi Zhou |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.19 | 84.0% | 08 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 5.00 | 20.0% | 08 Oct 06:15 |