| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.8% | 64% | -4.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 83.6% | 87% | -3.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 77.9% | 82% | -4.2% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.8% | 61% | -1.8% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 67.1% | 18.6% | 14.4% |
| xgboost | 65.9% | 16.6% | 17.5% |
| logistic | 57.2% | 25.6% | 17.2% |
| Southampton | Portsmouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1665 | 1514 |
| Surface Elo | 1665 | 1514 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.75 | 1.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.38 | 1.29 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 1.43 |
| Rest days | 21 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 2 D |
| 09 Oct | H | QPR | 5 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Wrexham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Wrexham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Bristol City | 4 - 1 | W |
| 08 Sep | H | Swansea | 3 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Blackburn | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Blackburn | 2 - 2 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Charlton | 0 - 0 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Cardiff | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Sep | H | Derby | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Jan 2026 | Portsmouth | 1 - 1 | Southampton |
| 14 Sep 2025 | Southampton | 0 - 0 | Portsmouth |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 6.25 | 16.0% | 11 Oct 12:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.20 | 23.8% | 11 Oct 12:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.46 | 68.5% | 11 Oct 12:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.62 | 61.7% | 11 Oct 12:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 11 Oct 12:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.48 | 18.2% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.57 | 21.9% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.59 | 62.9% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.59 | 62.9% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.45 | 40.8% | 11 Oct 06:15 |