| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.8% | 60% | -1.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 57.8% | 42.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| logistic | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| Matej Dodig | Lukas Neumayer | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1754 | 1727 |
| Surface Elo | 1754 | 1727 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 09 Oct | A | Marvin Moeller | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Miguel Damas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Andrea Pellegrino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Elmer Moller | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Lukas Neumayer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Max Alcala Gurri | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Olle Wallin | 1 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Florian Broska | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Matej Dodig | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Max Alcala Gurri | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Lukas Neumayer | 0 - 2 | Matej Dodig |
| 07 Jul 2025 | Lukas Neumayer | 0 - 2 | Matej Dodig |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.15 | 46.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.66 | 60.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |