| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.4% | 65% | -7.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 67.4% | 32.5% |
| logistic | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| Matthew William Donald | Javier Barranco Cosano | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1631 | 1502 |
| Surface Elo | 1631 | 1502 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.33 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.56 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.78 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | A | Filippo Romano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Maxim Zhukov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Gabriele Pennaforti | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Giorgio Tabacco | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Ryan Nijboer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Oct | A | Oleksii Krutykh | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Oleksii Krutykh | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Hugo Maia | 1 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Lorenzo Carboni | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.40 | 41.7% | 19 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.54 | 64.9% | 19 Oct 06:15 |