| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 52.8% | 70% | -16.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 38.5% | 61.4% |
| logistic | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| Valerio Aboian | Franco Roncadelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1555 | 1513 |
| Surface Elo | 1555 | 1513 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 0.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Franco Roncadelli | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | A | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 0 - 1 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Juan Manuel La Serna | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Valerio Aboian | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Barrios Vera, Marcelo Tomas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Tomas Barrios Vera | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Franco Roncadelli | 2 - 1 | Valerio Aboian |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.45 | 69.0% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.60 | 38.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |