OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-10-04
NFL · Sunday 04 October 2026, 20:25 UTC · finished
Las Vegas Raiders – 27 - 30 – Kansas City Chiefs
NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 55.0%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeAway
ensemble45.0%55.0%
Inputs the models saw
Las Vegas RaidersKansas City Chiefs
playoff0.00
elo diff-0.23
form diff0.12
rest diff-0.02
home field1.00
point diff-0.24
opponent strength diff0.07
Information cutoff (UTC)2026-10-03T20:25:00+00:00
Las Vegas Raiders: last 5
27 SepANew Orleans Saints35 - 27W
20 SepALos Angeles Chargers26 - 14W
13 SepHMiami Dolphins27 - 13W
04 JanHKansas City Chiefs14 - 12W
28 DecHNew York Giants10 - 34L
Kansas City Chiefs: last 5
27 SepAMiami Dolphins24 - 10W
21 SepHIndianapolis Colts33 - 30W
15 SepHDenver Broncos31 - 10W
04 JanALas Vegas Raiders12 - 14L
26 DecHDenver Broncos13 - 20L
Head to head
04 Jan 2026Las Vegas Raiders14 - 12Kansas City Chiefs
19 Oct 2025Kansas City Chiefs31 - 0Las Vegas Raiders
29 Nov 2024Kansas City Chiefs19 - 17Las Vegas Raiders
27 Oct 2024Las Vegas Raiders20 - 27Kansas City Chiefs
25 Dec 2023Kansas City Chiefs14 - 20Las Vegas Raiders
26 Nov 2023Las Vegas Raiders17 - 31Kansas City Chiefs
07 Jan 2023Las Vegas Raiders13 - 31Kansas City Chiefs
11 Oct 2022Kansas City Chiefs30 - 29Las Vegas Raiders
12 Dec 2021Kansas City Chiefs48 - 9Las Vegas Raiders
15 Nov 2021Las Vegas Raiders14 - 41Kansas City Chiefs
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Pinnacle sharp1X2home2.9633.8%04 Oct 15:20
Pinnacle sharp1X2away1.4569.0%04 Oct 15:20
Generated 2026-10-30 17:07 UTC