| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.0% | 73% | -15.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 62.2% | 37.7% |
| logistic | 57.8% | 42.2% |
| Facundo Mena | Valerio Aboian | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1632 | 1525 |
| Surface Elo | 1632 | 1525 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.88 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.63 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 5 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | H | Valerio Aboian | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | Nicolas Kicker | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Nicolas Kicker | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Miguel Tobon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Matias Soto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Facundo Mena | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Franco Roncadelli | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Facundo Mena | 1 - 2 | Valerio Aboian |
| 29 Jun 2026 | Facundo Mena | 0 - 2 | Valerio Aboian |
| 13 Apr 2026 | Facundo Mena | 0 - 2 | Valerio Aboian |
| 24 Mar 2025 | Facundo Mena | 1 - 2 | Valerio Aboian |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.95 | 33.9% | 21 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.37 | 73.0% | 21 Oct 06:15 |