OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-10-06

NFL · Tuesday 06 October 2026, 00:15 UTC · finished

New Orleans Saints – 24 - 45 – Atlanta Falcons

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	57.1%	55%	+1.8%	✗ miss

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	57.1%	42.9%

Inputs the models saw

	New Orleans Saints	Atlanta Falcons
playoff	0.00
elo diff	-0.08
form diff	0.00
rest diff	-0.41
home field	1.00
point diff	0.59
opponent strength diff	-0.08
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-10-05T00:15:00+00:00

New Orleans Saints: last 5

27 Sep	H	Las Vegas Raiders	27 - 35	L
20 Sep	A	Baltimore Ravens	24 - 17	W
13 Sep	A	Detroit Lions	30 - 31	L
04 Jan	A	Atlanta Falcons	17 - 19	L
28 Dec	A	Tennessee Titans	34 - 26	W

Atlanta Falcons: last 5

25 Sep	A	Green Bay Packers	35 - 14	W
20 Sep	H	Carolina Panthers	3 - 34	L
13 Sep	A	Pittsburgh Steelers	13 - 20	L
04 Jan	H	New Orleans Saints	19 - 17	W
30 Dec	H	Los Angeles Rams	27 - 24	W

Head to head

04 Jan 2026	Atlanta Falcons	19 - 17	New Orleans Saints
23 Nov 2025	New Orleans Saints	10 - 24	Atlanta Falcons
10 Nov 2024	New Orleans Saints	20 - 17	Atlanta Falcons
29 Sep 2024	Atlanta Falcons	26 - 24	New Orleans Saints
07 Jan 2024	New Orleans Saints	48 - 17	Atlanta Falcons
26 Nov 2023	Atlanta Falcons	24 - 15	New Orleans Saints
18 Dec 2022	New Orleans Saints	21 - 18	Atlanta Falcons
11 Sep 2022	Atlanta Falcons	26 - 27	New Orleans Saints
09 Jan 2022	Atlanta Falcons	20 - 30	New Orleans Saints
07 Nov 2021	New Orleans Saints	25 - 27	Atlanta Falcons

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	1.85	54.1%	05 Oct 18:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	2.06	48.5%	05 Oct 18:20

Generated 2026-10-30 18:21 UTC