| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.1% | 59% | +2.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 67.2% | 32.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| logistic | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| Hubert Hurkacz | Denis Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1928 | 1835 |
| Surface Elo | 1928 | 1835 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | A | Denis Shapovalov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Lloyd Harris | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Lloyd Harris | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Damm Jr, Martin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Martin Damm | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Hubert Hurkacz | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Adrian Mannarino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Adrian Mannarino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Vit Kopriva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Tallon Griekspoor | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Denis Shapovalov | 1 - 2 | Hubert Hurkacz |
| 27 May 2024 | Denis Shapovalov | 1 - 3 | Hubert Hurkacz |
| 16 Jan 2023 | Denis Shapovalov | 2 - 3 | Hubert Hurkacz |
| 22 Mar 2021 | Denis Shapovalov | 0 - 2 | Hubert Hurkacz |
| 15 Mar 2021 | Denis Shapovalov | 2 - 0 | Hubert Hurkacz |
| 19 Aug 2019 | Denis Shapovalov | 0 - 2 | Hubert Hurkacz |
| 04 Mar 2019 | Denis Shapovalov | 1 - 2 | Hubert Hurkacz |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 28 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.69 | 59.2% | 28 Sep 06:15 |