| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 60.4% | 49% | +11.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| logistic | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| Matteo Arnaldi | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1798 | 1671 |
| Surface Elo | 1798 | 1671 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 30 | 23 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | H | Rei Sakamoto | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | James Duckworth | 1 - 3 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | Martin Landaluce | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Aug | H | Tallon Griekspoor | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Aug | A | Fabian Marozsan | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Matteo Arnaldi | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | JiSung Nam | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Sep | A | Frances Tiafoe | 0 - 3 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Aleksandar Vukic | 3 - 2 | W |
| 17 Aug | A | Luca Van Assche | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Matteo Arnaldi | 2 - 1 | Rei Sakamoto |
| 01 Oct 2025 | Matteo Arnaldi | 2 - 0 | Rei Sakamoto |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.81 | 55.2% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 29 Sep 06:15 |