OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-27

🎾 tennis_atp_vienna_open · Tuesday 27 October 2026, 13:40 UTC · scheduled

Karen Khachanov 1.80 13:40 1.80 Carlos Alcaraz

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	66.9%	83%	-15.8%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.0%	35.2%
xgboost	33.8%	66.2%
logistic	24.5%	75.5%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Karen Khachanov	Carlos Alcaraz
Elo (pre-match)	1913	2273
Surface Elo	1913	2273
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.80	1.80
Form trend	0.90	0.90
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	3	15
Head-to-head (last 10)	0 W	6 W · 0 D

Karen Khachanov: last 5

23 Oct	A	Alexander Bublik	1 - 2	L
23 Oct	A	Alexander Bublik	1 - 2	L
22 Oct	A	Tomas Machac	2 - 1	W
22 Oct	H	Tomas Machac	2 - 1	W
20 Oct	A	Rei Sakamoto	2 - 0	W

Carlos Alcaraz: last 5

12 Oct	A	Zizou Bergs	0 - 2	L
12 Oct	H	Zizou Bergs	0 - 2	L
10 Oct	A	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	2 - 0	W
10 Oct	H	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	2 - 0	W
06 Oct	H	Jiri Lehecka	2 - 0	W

Head to head

19 Feb 2026	Carlos Alcaraz	2 - 1	Karen Khachanov
05 May 2025	Carlos Alcaraz	2 - 1	Karen Khachanov
26 Sep 2024	Carlos Alcaraz	2 - 0	Karen Khachanov
24 Apr 2023	Carlos Alcaraz	2 - 0	Karen Khachanov
18 Jul 2022	Carlos Alcaraz	2 - 0	Karen Khachanov
23 May 2022	Carlos Alcaraz	3 - 0	Karen Khachanov

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.23	81.3%	27 Oct 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Karen Khachanov	4.41	22.7%	27 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.22	82.0%	27 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Karen Khachanov	4.20	23.8%	27 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.20	83.3%	27 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Karen Khachanov	4.60	21.7%	27 Oct 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.19	84.0%	27 Oct 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Karen Khachanov	4.30	23.3%	27 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.24	80.7%	27 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Karen Khachanov	5.00	20.0%	27 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Carlos Alcaraz	1.25	80.0%	27 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Karen Khachanov	5.20	19.2%	27 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.20	83.3%	27 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Karen Khachanov	4.90	20.4%	27 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.20	83.3%	27 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Karen Khachanov	4.40	22.7%	27 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.21	82.6%	27 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Karen Khachanov	4.50	22.2%	27 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.20	83.3%	27 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Karen Khachanov	4.60	21.7%	27 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.21	82.6%	27 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Karen Khachanov	4.35	23.0%	27 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.24	80.7%	27 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Karen Khachanov	5.00	20.0%	27 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Carlos Alcaraz	1.25	80.0%	27 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Karen Khachanov	5.20	19.2%	27 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.20	83.3%	27 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Karen Khachanov	4.40	22.7%	27 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.23	81.3%	27 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Karen Khachanov	4.69	21.3%	27 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.16	86.2%	27 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Karen Khachanov	4.25	23.5%	27 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.21	82.6%	27 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	4.65	21.5%	27 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.16	86.2%	27 Oct 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Karen Khachanov	4.50	22.2%	27 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.16	86.2%	27 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Karen Khachanov	4.25	23.5%	27 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.20	83.3%	27 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Karen Khachanov	4.60	21.7%	27 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.20	83.3%	27 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Karen Khachanov	4.60	21.7%	27 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.22	82.0%	27 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Karen Khachanov	4.20	23.8%	27 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.21	82.6%	27 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Karen Khachanov	4.70	21.3%	27 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.19	84.0%	27 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Karen Khachanov	4.30	23.3%	27 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 15:05 UTC